earnings-preview
財報前建立預估、看多看空情境和要盯的關鍵指標
中文翻譯
--- name: earnings-preview description: 建立財報前分析，包括預估模型、情境框架和要關注的關鍵指標。在公司發布季度財報前使用，用來準備部位筆記、設定看多／看空情境、找出會推動股價的因素。觸發詞包括「earnings preview」、「what to watch for [company] earnings」、「pre-earnings」、「earnings setup」、「preview Q[X] for [company]」。 --- # 財報前瞻 ## 工作流程 ### 步驟 1：蒐集背景 - 確認公司和財報季度 - 用 web search 取得共識預估（營收、EPS、關鍵分部指標） - 找出財報日期和時間（盤前 vs. 盤後） - 回顧公司上一季財報電話會議中的任何 guidance 或評論 ### 步驟 2：關鍵指標框架 針對該公司建立專屬的「要看什麼」框架： **財務指標：** - 營收 vs. 共識（總計與各分部） - EPS vs. 共識 - 利潤率（毛利、營業、淨利）：擴張還是收縮？ - 自由現金流 - 前瞻 guidance vs. 共識 **營運指標**（依產業）： - 科技／SaaS：ARR、淨留存率、RPO、客戶數 - 零售：同店銷售、客流、客單 - 工業：backlog、book-to-bill、價格 vs. 數量 - 金融：NIM、信用品質、放款成長、手續費收入 - 醫療：處方量、病患量、研發管線更新 ### 步驟 3：情境分析 建立 3 個情境及其對股價的影響： | 情境 | 營收 | EPS | 關鍵驅動 | 股價反應 | |----------|---------|-----|------------|----------------| | Bull | | | | | | Base | | | | | | Bear | | | | | 每個情境都要寫： - 營運上要發生什麼事 - 管理層的哪些說法會暗示這個情境 - 歷史脈絡：股價對類似的財報數字怎麼反應過？ ### 步驟 4：催化劑 Checklist 找出 3 到 5 個會決定股價反應的事： 1. [指標] vs. [共識／whisper number]：為什麼重要 2. [Guidance 項目]：買方預期聽到什麼 3. [敘事轉變]：任何策略變動、併購、重組 ### 步驟 5：輸出 一頁式財報前瞻，包含： - 公司、季度、財報日期 - 共識預估表 - 要關注的關鍵指標（依重要性排序） - Bull/base/bear 情境表 - 催化劑 checklist - 交易佈局：近期股價表現、選擇權隱含波動 ## 重要注意事項 - 共識預估會變，一定要註明預估的來源和日期 - 買方調查的「whisper number」往往比公布的共識更有參考價值 - 歷史財報反應有助於校準預期（搜尋「[company] earnings reaction history」） - 選擇權隱含波動告訴你市場預期什麼，拿來跟你的情境比較
英文原文
--- name: earnings-preview description: Build pre-earnings analysis with estimate models, scenario frameworks, and key metrics to watch. Use before a company reports quarterly earnings to prepare positioning notes, set up bull/bear scenarios, and identify what will move the stock. Triggers on "earnings preview", "what to watch for [company] earnings", "pre-earnings", "earnings setup", or "preview Q[X] for [company]". --- # Earnings Preview ## Workflow ### Step 1: Gather Context - Identify the company and reporting quarter - Pull consensus estimates via web search (revenue, EPS, key segment metrics) - Find the earnings date and time (pre-market vs. after-hours) - Review the company's prior quarter earnings call for any guidance or commentary ### Step 2: Key Metrics Framework Build a "what to watch" framework specific to the company: **Financial Metrics:** - Revenue vs. consensus (total and by segment) - EPS vs. consensus - Margins (gross, operating, net) — expanding or contracting? - Free cash flow - Forward guidance vs. consensus **Operational Metrics** (sector-specific): - Tech/SaaS: ARR, net retention, RPO, customer count - Retail: Same-store sales, traffic, basket size - Industrials: Backlog, book-to-bill, price vs. volume - Financials: NIM, credit quality, loan growth, fee income - Healthcare: Scripts, patient volumes, pipeline updates ### Step 3: Scenario Analysis Build 3 scenarios with stock price implications: | Scenario | Revenue | EPS | Key Driver | Stock Reaction | |----------|---------|-----|------------|----------------| | Bull | | | | | | Base | | | | | | Bear | | | | | For each scenario: - What would need to happen operationally - What management commentary would signal this - Historical context — how has the stock moved on similar prints? ### Step 4: Catalyst Checklist Identify the 3-5 things that will determine the stock's reaction: 1. [Metric] vs. [consensus/whisper number] — why it matters 2. [Guidance item] — what the buy-side expects to hear 3. [Narrative shift] — any strategic changes, M&A, restructuring ### Step 5: Output One-page earnings preview with: - Company, quarter, earnings date - Consensus estimates table - Key metrics to watch (ranked by importance) - Bull/base/bear scenario table - Catalyst checklist - Trading setup: recent stock performance, implied move from options ## Important Notes - Consensus estimates change — always note the source and date of estimates - "Whisper numbers" from buy-side surveys are often more relevant than published consensus - Historical earnings reactions help calibrate expectations (search for "[company] earnings reaction history") - Options-implied move tells you what the market expects — compare to your scenarios