merger-model

Anthropic ｜金融與投資｜原文｜ Apache-2.0

建立併購的增益稀釋分析，含備考 EPS 和綜效敏感度

中文翻譯

---
name: merger-model
description: 為併購交易建立增益／稀釋（accretion/dilution）分析。建模備考 EPS 影響、綜效敏感度和購買價格分攤。在評估潛在收購、為 pitch 準備併購後果分析、或就交易條款提供建議時使用。觸發詞包括「merger model」、「accretion dilution」、「M&A model」、「pro forma EPS」、「merger consequences」、「deal impact analysis」。
---

# 併購模型

## 工作流程

### 步驟 1：蒐集輸入

**收購方：**
- 公司名稱、目前股價、流通在外股數
- LTM 和 NTM EPS（GAAP 與調整後）
- P/E 倍數
- 稅前負債成本、稅率
- 資產負債表上的現金、既有負債

**目標公司：**
- 公司名稱、目前股價、流通在外股數（若為上市公司）
- LTM 和 NTM EPS 或淨利
- 企業價值或股權價值

**交易條款：**
- 每股報價（或相對目前股價的溢價）
- 對價組合：% 現金 vs. % 股票
- 為現金部分籌資所新增的負債
- 預期綜效（營收與成本）和逐步實現時程
- 交易費用與融資成本
- 預期交割日

### 步驟 2：購買價格分析

| 項目 | 數值 |
|------|-------|
| 每股報價 | |
| 相對目前股價的溢價 | |
| 股權價值 | |
| 加：承擔的淨負債 | |
| 企業價值 | |
| 隱含 EV / EBITDA | |
| 隱含 P/E | |

### 步驟 3：資金來源與用途

| 來源 | $ | 用途 | $ |
|---------|---|------|---|
| 新增負債 | | 股權購買價格 | |
| 手上現金 | | 為目標公司債務再融資 | |
| 新發行股權 | | 交易費用 | |
| | | 融資費用 | |
| **合計** | | **合計** | |

### 步驟 4：備考 EPS（增益／稀釋）

逐年計算（第 1 到 3 年）：

| | 獨立 | 備考 | 增益/(稀釋) |
|---|-----------|-----------|---------------------|
| 收購方淨利 | | | |
| 目標公司淨利 | | | |
| 綜效（稅後） | | | |
| 放棄的現金利息（稅後） | | | |
| 新增負債利息（稅後） | | | |
| 無形資產攤銷（稅後） | | | |
| 備考淨利 | | | |
| 備考股數 | | | |
| **備考 EPS** | | | |
| **增益 / (稀釋) %** | | | |

### 步驟 5：敏感度分析

**增益/稀釋 vs. 綜效與報價溢價：**

| | $0M syn | $25M syn | $50M syn | $75M syn | $100M syn |
|---|---------|----------|----------|----------|-----------|
| 15% 溢價 | | | | | |
| 20% 溢價 | | | | | |
| 25% 溢價 | | | | | |
| 30% 溢價 | | | | | |

**增益/稀釋 vs. 現金/股票組合：**

| | 100% 現金 | 75/25 | 50/50 | 25/75 | 100% 股票 |
|---|-----------|-------|-------|-------|------------|
| 第 1 年 | | | | | |
| 第 2 年 | | | | | |

### 步驟 6：損益兩平綜效

計算讓交易在第 1 年 EPS 持平所需的最低綜效。

### 步驟 7：輸出

- Excel 活頁簿，包含：
  - 假設分頁
  - 資金來源與用途
  - 備考損益表
  - 增益/稀釋摘要
  - 敏感度表
  - 損益兩平分析
- 給 pitch book 的一頁併購後果摘要

## 重要注意事項

- 相關時，一定要同時呈現 GAAP 和調整後（現金）EPS
- 股票交易：用收購方目前股價計算換股比例，並註明新股造成的稀釋
- 要包含購買價格分攤，商譽和無形資產攤銷會影響 GAAP EPS
- 綜效逐步實現很關鍵，第 1 年通常只有 run-rate 綜效的 25 到 50%
- 別忘了使用掉的現金所放棄的利息收入，以及新增負債的利息費用
- 綜效和利息調整的稅率應該與收購方的邊際稅率一致

英文原文

---
name: merger-model
description: Build accretion/dilution analysis for M&A transactions. Models pro forma EPS impact, synergy sensitivities, and purchase price allocation. Use when evaluating a potential acquisition, preparing merger consequences analysis for a pitch, or advising on deal terms. Triggers on "merger model", "accretion dilution", "M&A model", "pro forma EPS", "merger consequences", or "deal impact analysis".
---

# Merger Model

## Workflow

### Step 1: Gather Inputs

**Acquirer:**
- Company name, current share price, shares outstanding
- LTM and NTM EPS (GAAP and adjusted)
- P/E multiple
- Pre-tax cost of debt, tax rate
- Cash on balance sheet, existing debt

**Target:**
- Company name, current share price, shares outstanding (if public)
- LTM and NTM EPS or net income
- Enterprise value or equity value

**Deal Terms:**
- Offer price per share (or premium to current)
- Consideration mix: % cash vs. % stock
- New debt raised to fund cash portion
- Expected synergies (revenue and cost) and phase-in timeline
- Transaction fees and financing costs
- Expected close date

### Step 2: Purchase Price Analysis

| Item | Value |
|------|-------|
| Offer price per share | |
| Premium to current | |
| Equity value | |
| Plus: net debt assumed | |
| Enterprise value | |
| EV / EBITDA implied | |
| P/E implied | |

### Step 3: Sources & Uses

| Sources | $ | Uses | $ |
|---------|---|------|---|
| New debt | | Equity purchase price | |
| Cash on hand | | Refinance target debt | |
| New equity issued | | Transaction fees | |
| | | Financing fees | |
| **Total** | | **Total** | |

### Step 4: Pro Forma EPS (Accretion / Dilution)

Calculate year-by-year (Year 1-3):

| | Standalone | Pro Forma | Accretion/(Dilution) |
|---|-----------|-----------|---------------------|
| Acquirer net income | | | |
| Target net income | | | |
| Synergies (after tax) | | | |
| Foregone interest on cash (after tax) | | | |
| New debt interest (after tax) | | | |
| Intangible amortization (after tax) | | | |
| Pro forma net income | | | |
| Pro forma shares | | | |
| **Pro forma EPS** | | | |
| **Accretion / (Dilution) %** | | | |

### Step 5: Sensitivity Analysis

**Accretion/Dilution vs. Synergies and Offer Premium:**

| | $0M syn | $25M syn | $50M syn | $75M syn | $100M syn |
|---|---------|----------|----------|----------|-----------|
| 15% premium | | | | | |
| 20% premium | | | | | |
| 25% premium | | | | | |
| 30% premium | | | | | |

**Accretion/Dilution vs. Cash/Stock Mix:**

| | 100% cash | 75/25 | 50/50 | 25/75 | 100% stock |
|---|-----------|-------|-------|-------|------------|
| Year 1 | | | | | |
| Year 2 | | | | | |

### Step 6: Breakeven Synergies

Calculate the minimum synergies needed for the deal to be EPS-neutral in Year 1.

### Step 7: Output

- Excel workbook with:
  - Assumptions tab
  - Sources & uses
  - Pro forma income statement
  - Accretion/dilution summary
  - Sensitivity tables
  - Breakeven analysis
- One-page merger consequences summary for pitch book

## Important Notes

- Always show both GAAP and adjusted (cash) EPS where relevant
- Stock deals: use acquirer's current price for exchange ratio, note dilution from new shares
- Include purchase price allocation — goodwill and intangible amortization matter for GAAP EPS
- Synergy phase-in is critical — Year 1 is often only 25-50% of run-rate synergies
- Don't forget foregone interest income on cash used and new interest expense on debt raised
- Tax rate on synergies and interest adjustments should match the acquirer's marginal rate