model-update

Anthropic ｜金融與投資｜原文｜ Apache-2.0

用新財報或 guidance 更新財務模型、估值與目標價

中文翻譯

---
name: model-update
description: 用新資料更新財務模型，包括季度財報、管理層 guidance、總經變化或修正後的假設。調整預估、重算估值，並標出重大變動。在財報後、guidance 更新後、或假設需要更新時使用。觸發詞包括「update model」、「plug earnings」、「refresh estimates」、「update numbers for [company]」、「new guidance」、「revise estimates」。
---

# 模型更新

## 工作流程

### 步驟 1：找出什麼變了

判斷更新的觸發原因：
- **財報發布**：要填入新的季度實際值
- **Guidance 變動**：公司更新了前瞻展望
- **預估修正**：分析師依新資料調整假設
- **總經更新**：利率、匯率、大宗商品價格變了
- **事件驅動**：併購、重組、新產品、管理層異動

### 步驟 2：填入新資料

#### 財報後
用已申報的實際值更新模型：

| 項目 | 先前預估 | 實際 | 差異 | 備註 |
|-----------|---------------|--------|-------|-------|
| Revenue | | | | |
| Gross Margin | | | | |
| Operating Expenses | | | | |
| EBITDA | | | | |
| EPS | | | | |
| [關鍵指標 1] | | | | |
| [關鍵指標 2] | | | | |

**分部細節**（如適用）：
- 更新每個分部的營收和利潤率
- 註明任何分部組合的變化

**資產負債表／現金流更新**：
- 現金和負債餘額
- 股數（買回、稀釋）
- 資本支出實際 vs. 預估
- 營運資金變動

### 步驟 3：修正前瞻預估

根據新資料調整前瞻預估：

| | 舊 FY 預估 | 新 FY 預估 | 變動 | 舊次一 FY | 新次一 FY | 變動 |
|---|-----------|-----------|--------|------------|------------|--------|
| Revenue | | | | | | |
| EBITDA | | | | | | |
| EPS | | | | | | |

**關鍵假設變動：**
- 你改了哪些假設？為什麼？
- 營收成長率：舊 → 新（原因）
- 利潤率假設：舊 → 新（原因）
- 任何新項目（重組費用、一次性利得等）

### 步驟 4：估值影響

用更新後的預估重算估值：

| 估值方法 | 先前 | 更新後 | 變動 |
|-----------------|-------|---------|--------|
| DCF 合理價值 | | | |
| P/E (NTM EPS × 目標倍數) | | | |
| EV/EBITDA (NTM EBITDA × 目標倍數) | | | |
| **目標價** | | | |

### 步驟 5：摘要與行動

**預估變動摘要：**
- 一段話：什麼變了、為什麼、對這檔股票代表什麼
- 這是改變論點的事件，還是雜訊？

**評等／目標價：**
- 維持還是調整評等？
- 新的目標價（如有變動）與方法
- 相對目前股價的上檔／下檔

### 步驟 6：輸出

- 更新後的 Excel 模型（如果使用者提供現有模型）
- 預估變動摘要（markdown 或 Word）
- 更新後的目標價推導

## 重要注意事項

- 往前預測之前，一定要先把你的預估和公司申報的數字對齊
- 註明任何非經常性項目，以及你的預估是 GAAP 還是調整後
- 追蹤你的預估修正歷史，它能顯示你的分析演進
- 如果該季很雜亂，在預估變動中把訊號和雜訊分開
- 更新後檢查共識，你修正後的預估跟市場比起來如何？
- 股數很重要，股票薪酬、可轉債或買回造成的稀釋，可能實質影響 EPS

英文原文

---
name: model-update
description: Update financial models with new data — quarterly earnings, management guidance, macro changes, or revised assumptions. Adjusts estimates, recalculates valuation, and flags material changes. Use after earnings, guidance updates, or when assumptions need refreshing. Triggers on "update model", "plug earnings", "refresh estimates", "update numbers for [company]", "new guidance", or "revise estimates".
---

# Model Update

## Workflow

### Step 1: Identify What Changed

Determine the update trigger:
- **Earnings release**: New quarterly actuals to plug in
- **Guidance change**: Company updated forward outlook
- **Estimate revision**: Analyst changing assumptions based on new data
- **Macro update**: Interest rates, FX, commodity prices changed
- **Event-driven**: M&A, restructuring, new product, management change

### Step 2: Plug New Data

#### After Earnings
Update the model with reported actuals:

| Line Item | Prior Estimate | Actual | Delta | Notes |
|-----------|---------------|--------|-------|-------|
| Revenue | | | | |
| Gross Margin | | | | |
| Operating Expenses | | | | |
| EBITDA | | | | |
| EPS | | | | |
| [Key metric 1] | | | | |
| [Key metric 2] | | | | |

**Segment Detail** (if applicable):
- Update each segment's revenue and margin
- Note any segment mix shifts

**Balance Sheet / Cash Flow Updates**:
- Cash and debt balances
- Share count (buybacks, dilution)
- Capex actual vs. estimate
- Working capital changes

### Step 3: Revise Forward Estimates

Based on the new data, adjust forward estimates:

| | Old FY Est | New FY Est | Change | Old Next FY | New Next FY | Change |
|---|-----------|-----------|--------|------------|------------|--------|
| Revenue | | | | | | |
| EBITDA | | | | | | |
| EPS | | | | | | |

**Key Assumption Changes:**
- What assumptions are you changing and why?
- Revenue growth rate: old → new (reason)
- Margin assumption: old → new (reason)
- Any new items (restructuring charges, one-time gains, etc.)

### Step 4: Valuation Impact

Recalculate valuation with updated estimates:

| Valuation Method | Prior | Updated | Change |
|-----------------|-------|---------|--------|
| DCF fair value | | | |
| P/E (NTM EPS × target multiple) | | | |
| EV/EBITDA (NTM EBITDA × target multiple) | | | |
| **Price Target** | | | |

### Step 5: Summary & Action

**Estimate Change Summary:**
- One paragraph: what changed, why, and what it means for the stock
- Is this a thesis-changing event or noise?

**Rating / Price Target:**
- Maintain or change rating?
- New price target (if changed) with methodology
- Upside/downside to current price

### Step 6: Output

- Updated Excel model (if user provides the existing model)
- Estimate change summary (markdown or Word)
- Updated price target derivation

## Important Notes

- Always reconcile your estimates to the company's reported figures before projecting forward
- Note any non-recurring items and whether your estimates are GAAP or adjusted
- Track your estimate revision history — it shows your analytical progression
- If the quarter was noisy, separate signal from noise in your estimate changes
- Check consensus after updating — how do your revised estimates compare to the Street?
- Share count matters — dilution from stock comp, converts, or buybacks can materially affect EPS