thesis-tracker
維護投資論點、資料點和催化劑，檢查論點是否還成立
中文翻譯
--- name: thesis-tracker description: 維護並更新投資組合部位和觀察名單標的的投資論點。長期追蹤關鍵資料點、催化劑和論點里程碑。適用於用新資訊更新論點、檢視部位的理由，或確認論點是否仍然成立。觸發詞："update thesis for [company]"、"is my thesis still intact"、"thesis check"、"add data point to [company]"、"review my positions"。 --- # 論點追蹤器 ## 工作流程 ### 步驟 1：定義或載入論點 如果是建立新的論點： - **公司**：名稱和股票代號 - **部位**：做多或做空 - **論點陳述**：1-2 句的核心論點（例如 "Long ACME — margin expansion from pricing power + operating leverage as mix shifts to software"） - **關鍵支柱**：3-5 個支持論點 - **關鍵風險**：3-5 個會推翻論點的風險 - **催化劑**：可能證實／證偽論點的即將發生事件（財報、產品發表、法規決定） - **目標價／估值**：如果論點成真，值多少 - **停損觸發條件**：什麼情況會讓你出場 如果是更新現有論點，請向使用者詢問新的資料點或進展。 ### 步驟 2：更新紀錄 每個新的資料點或進展都記錄： - **日期**：發生的時間 - **資料點**：變了什麼（財報超預期、管理層離職、競爭對手動作等） - **對論點的影響**：它強化、削弱，還是抵銷了某個特定支柱？ - **動作**：不變／加碼／減碼／出場 - **更新後的信心**：高／中／低 ### 步驟 3：論點計分卡 維護一份持續更新的計分卡： | 支柱 | 原本預期 | 目前狀態 | 趨勢 | |--------|---------------------|----------------|-------| | 營收成長 >20% | 符合進度 | Q3 為 22% | 穩定 | | 利潤率擴張 | 落後 | 利潤率年增持平 | 令人擔憂 | | 新產品上市 | 待定 | 延到 Q2 | 觀察 | ### 步驟 4：催化劑日曆 追蹤即將到來的催化劑： | 日期 | 事件 | 預期影響 | 備註 | |------|-------|-----------------|-------| | | | | | ### 步驟 5：輸出 適合以下用途的論點摘要： - 晨會討論 - 投資組合檢視 - 風險委員會簡報 格式：簡潔的 markdown 或 Word 文件，附計分卡、近期更新和目前的信心水準。 ## 重要注意事項 - 論點應該是可證偽的，如果沒有任何東西能推翻它，那它就不是論點 - 追蹤反面證據要跟追蹤正面證據一樣嚴謹 - 論點至少每季檢視一次，即使沒發生什麼大事 - 如果使用者管理多個部位，主動提議做一次完整的投資組合論點檢視 - 論點資料要用結構化格式儲存，才能跨 session 參照
英文原文
--- name: thesis-tracker description: Maintain and update investment theses for portfolio positions and watchlist names. Track key data points, catalysts, and thesis milestones over time. Use when updating a thesis with new information, reviewing position rationale, or checking if a thesis is still intact. Triggers on "update thesis for [company]", "is my thesis still intact", "thesis check", "add data point to [company]", or "review my positions". --- # Thesis Tracker ## Workflow ### Step 1: Define or Load Thesis If creating a new thesis: - **Company**: Name and ticker - **Position**: Long or Short - **Thesis statement**: 1-2 sentence core thesis (e.g., "Long ACME — margin expansion from pricing power + operating leverage as mix shifts to software") - **Key pillars**: 3-5 supporting arguments - **Key risks**: 3-5 risks that would invalidate the thesis - **Catalysts**: Upcoming events that could prove/disprove the thesis (earnings, product launches, regulatory decisions) - **Target price / valuation**: What's it worth if the thesis plays out - **Stop-loss trigger**: What would make you exit If updating an existing thesis, ask the user for the new data point or development. ### Step 2: Update Log For each new data point or development: - **Date**: When this happened - **Data point**: What changed (earnings beat, management departure, competitor move, etc.) - **Thesis impact**: Does this strengthen, weaken, or neutralize a specific pillar? - **Action**: No change / Increase position / Trim / Exit - **Updated conviction**: High / Medium / Low ### Step 3: Thesis Scorecard Maintain a running scorecard: | Pillar | Original Expectation | Current Status | Trend | |--------|---------------------|----------------|-------| | Revenue growth >20% | On track | Q3 was 22% | Stable | | Margin expansion | Behind | Margins flat YoY | Concerning | | New product launch | Pending | Delayed to Q2 | Watch | ### Step 4: Catalyst Calendar Track upcoming catalysts: | Date | Event | Expected Impact | Notes | |------|-------|-----------------|-------| | | | | | ### Step 5: Output Thesis summary suitable for: - Morning meeting discussion - Portfolio review - Risk committee presentation Format: Concise markdown or Word doc with the scorecard, recent updates, and current conviction level. ## Important Notes - A thesis should be falsifiable — if nothing could disprove it, it's not a thesis - Track disconfirming evidence as rigorously as confirming evidence - Review theses at least quarterly, even when nothing dramatic has happened - If the user manages multiple positions, offer to do a full portfolio thesis review - Store thesis data in a structured format so it can be referenced across sessions