biz-swot

asgard-ai-platform ｜ 規劃與釐清 ｜ 原文 ｜ MIT

用 SWOT 加 TOWS 矩陣盤點內外部因素，推出具體策略選項

---
name: "biz-swot"
description: "用 SWOT 搭配 TOWS 矩陣做策略規劃分析。當使用者需要盤點優勢、劣勢、機會、威脅來評估公司、產品或專案，或想從內部與外部因素推導出策略選項時使用。就算使用者沒有明講 SWOT，只要提到競爭定位、策略評估，或問「我們的優勢和風險是什麼」，也要使用這個 skill。"
metadata:
  category: "WP-13 商學院—策略"
  tags: ["business-strategy", "swot", "tows"]
---

# SWOT 分析與 TOWS 矩陣

## 概述

SWOT 把策略評估拆成內部因素（優勢、劣勢）和外部因素（機會、威脅）。接著 TOWS 矩陣把這四個象限兩兩交叉，產出具體的策略選項。這個 skill 帶你走完整個流程：從找出因素、排優先順序，到擬定可執行的策略。

## 何時使用

**觸發條件：**
- 使用者要評估公司、產品、團隊或專案的策略位置
- 使用者需要找出優勢、風險或競爭因素
- 使用者想把情勢分析轉成策略選項
- 使用者提到「SWOT」、「優劣勢」或「策略評估」

**何時不要用：**
- 要看產業層級的競爭態勢 → 用 Porter 五力
- 要掃描總體環境 → 用 PESTEL
- 要做產品組合決策 → 用 BCG 矩陣
- 使用者只需要財務分析，不需要策略定位

## 框架

```
IRON LAW: Internal vs External Classification

Strengths and Weaknesses are INTERNAL — they originate from within the
organization and the organization can directly control or change them.
Examples: proprietary technology, brand reputation, team expertise, cost
structure, operational processes.

Opportunities and Threats are EXTERNAL — they originate from the environment
and the organization cannot directly control them.
Examples: market trends, regulatory changes, competitor actions, economic
conditions, technological shifts.

NEVER classify an external trend as a Strength or Weakness.
NEVER classify an internal capability as an Opportunity or Threat.

Test: "Can the organization decide to change this tomorrow?"
  YES → Internal (S or W)
  NO  → External (O or T)
```

```
IRON LAW: Completeness Before Synthesis

Complete ALL four quadrants before generating strategies.
Do NOT jump to recommendations after identifying only strengths and
opportunities. Skipping W or T produces dangerously optimistic strategies.
```

### 步驟 1：找出內部因素（S 和 W）

檢視組織的資源、能力和績效：

- **有形**：財務資源、實體資產、技術、專利
- **無形**：品牌資產、文化、專業知識、關係、聲譽
- **能力**：流程、技能、管理品質、創新紀錄

每個因素都要跟競爭對手比，分類成優勢（競爭優勢）或劣勢（競爭劣勢）。要講具體：「團隊很好」太籠統；「工程團隊有 5 年以上 ML 部署經驗」才有辦法行動。

### 步驟 2：找出外部因素（O 和 T）

從以下面向掃描環境：

- **市場**：成長趨勢、客戶需求轉變、新的客群
- **競爭**：競爭對手動向、新進者、替代品
- **總體**：法規、經濟、技術、社會的變化
- **產業特有**：供應鏈轉移、通路演變、標準變動

每個因素分類成機會（有利）或威脅（不利）。每個因素都要有證據支撐，盡量引用資料、趨勢或具體事件。

### 步驟 3：排優先順序

不是每個因素分量都一樣。每個象限內，依下列項目排序：

1. **影響**：對組織的影響有多大？（高 / 中 / 低）
2. **可能性**（只針對 O 和 T）：發生的機率多高？（高 / 中 / 低）
3. **急迫性**：有沒有時間壓力？

每個象限留前 3 到 5 個因素進 TOWS 矩陣。放太多會稀釋分析。

### 步驟 4：建立 TOWS 矩陣

把四個象限交叉，產出四種策略：

| | **機會** | **威脅** |
|---|---|---|
| **優勢** | **SO 策略**：用優勢抓住機會 | **ST 策略**：用優勢抵禦威脅 |
| **劣勢** | **WO 策略**：補強劣勢以抓住機會 | **WT 策略**：把劣勢降到最低以避開威脅 |

每個格子產出 1 到 3 個具體的策略選項。每個策略必須至少引用兩條軸各一個因素（例如 SO 策略一定要點名一個具體的優勢「和」一個具體的機會）。

### 步驟 5：擬定行動計畫

把最有希望的 TOWS 策略轉成可執行的建議：

1. 從四個格子裡挑出影響最大的 3 到 5 個策略
2. 每個策略都要定義：目標、負責人、時程、所需資源、成功指標
3. 標出策略之間的相依關係和可能的衝突

## 輸出格式

```markdown
# SWOT Analysis: {Subject}

## Internal Factors

### Strengths
| # | Factor | Evidence | Impact |
|---|--------|----------|--------|
| S1 | {specific strength} | {supporting data} | High/Med/Low |
| S2 | ... | ... | ... |

### Weaknesses
| # | Factor | Evidence | Impact |
|---|--------|----------|--------|
| W1 | {specific weakness} | {supporting data} | High/Med/Low |
| W2 | ... | ... | ... |

## External Factors

### Opportunities
| # | Factor | Evidence | Likelihood |
|---|--------|----------|-----------|
| O1 | {specific opportunity} | {supporting data} | High/Med/Low |
| O2 | ... | ... | ... |

### Threats
| # | Factor | Evidence | Likelihood |
|---|--------|----------|-----------|
| T1 | {specific threat} | {supporting data} | High/Med/Low |
| T2 | ... | ... | ... |

## TOWS Strategy Matrix

| | Opportunities (O1, O2...) | Threats (T1, T2...) |
|---|---|---|
| **Strengths** | SO: {strategy using S to capture O} | ST: {strategy using S to counter T} |
| **Weaknesses** | WO: {strategy to fix W and capture O} | WT: {strategy to minimize W and avoid T} |

## Recommended Actions
1. **{Strategy name}** — {description} (from: {SO/ST/WO/WT})
   - Timeline: ...
   - Success metric: ...
2. ...
```

## 範例

### 正確的做法

**情境：** 一家台灣中型珍珠奶茶連鎖品牌，考慮擴展到日本，替它做 SWOT

**分析：**

| 象限 | 因素 | 分類 | 理由 |
|----------|--------|---------------|-----------|
| **S** | 獨家珍珠配方，口感獨特 | 內部 ✓ | 公司自己的研發成果 |
| **S** | 台灣 50 間門市，SOP 已驗證 | 內部 ✓ | 公司的營運資產 |
| **W** | 沒有會日文的管理團隊 | 內部 ✓ | 公司自己的資源缺口 |
| **W** | 海外擴張資金有限 | 內部 ✓ | 公司自己的財務限制 |
| **O** | 日本珍奶市場年增 15% | 外部 ✓ | 市場趨勢，公司控制不了 |
| **O** | 疫後日台觀光回溫 | 外部 ✓ | 總體環境因素 |
| **T** | 日本已有成熟的競爭者（貢茶、CoCo） | 外部 ✓ | 競爭態勢 |
| **T** | 日圓貶值推高進口成本 | 外部 ✓ | 經濟條件 |

**TOWS 策略範例：**
- **SO**：運用獨家配方（S1）在成長中的日本市場（O1）做出差異化，定位成「道地的台灣職人茶飲」
- **WT**：處理資金受限（W2）的問題，並把匯率風險（T2）降到最低，原料盡量在日本當地採購

### 錯誤的做法

**情境：** 同一家珍奶連鎖品牌

**哪裡做錯了：**

| 因素 | 被放在 | 應該是 | 原因 |
|--------|-----------|-----------|-----|
| 「日本珍奶市場年增 15%」 | **優勢** ❌ | **機會** | 市場成長是外部趨勢，公司控制不了。違反 Iron Law：S/W 只能放內部因素。 |
| 「我們的團隊缺乏經驗」 | **威脅** ❌ | **劣勢** | 團隊組成是內部的，要請誰公司自己決定。違反 Iron Law：O/T 只能放外部因素。 |
| 「品牌很好」 | **優勢** ⚠️ | 需要更具體 | 太籠統，沒辦法行動。品牌好在哪？在台灣的知名度？社群追蹤數？還是具體的獎項？ |

## 常見陷阱

- **把「市場地位」搞混內外部**：「我們是第 3 名」感覺像內部因素，但排名本身是市場動態決定的。要拆開：「北台灣有強大的配銷網絡」（S，內部能力）對「市場整併讓競爭者變少」（O 或 T，外部趨勢）。
- **把基本門檻當優勢**：如果每個競爭對手都有網站，「我們有網站」就不是優勢。優勢一定是相對競爭對手的優勢。
- **把「沒有威脅」誤認成機會**：「這個利基市場沒有大型競爭者」不是機會，可能代表這個利基根本做不起來。機會需要一個正面的外部趨勢或事件。
- **TOWS 策略只參照單一軸**：「擴展到日本」不是 TOWS 策略。它必須跨象限：「運用獨家配方（S1）進入成長中的日本市場（O1）」。
- **範圍失控**：對「整間公司」做 SWOT 太廣。要把範圍縮到一個具體決策：「擴展到日本的 SWOT」或「推出新產品線的 SWOT」。
- **近因偏誤**：近期事件會主導整個分析。要刻意把結構性的長期因素跟當前事件一起考慮。

## 參考資料

- TOWS 矩陣的詳細案例研究，見 `references/tows-case-studies.md`
- 與其他策略框架（Porter、PESTEL、BCG）的比較，見 `references/framework-comparison.md`

---
name: "biz-swot"
description: "Conduct SWOT analysis with TOWS matrix for strategic planning. Use this skill when the user needs to evaluate a company, product, or project by identifying strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats, or wants to generate strategic options from internal and external factors. Also use when the user mentions competitive positioning, strategic assessment, or asks 'what are our advantages and risks', even without naming SWOT explicitly."
metadata:
  category: "WP-13 商學院—策略"
  tags: ["business-strategy", "swot", "tows"]
---

# SWOT Analysis with TOWS Matrix

## Overview

SWOT structures strategic assessment by separating internal factors (Strengths, Weaknesses) from external factors (Opportunities, Threats). The TOWS matrix then crosses these four quadrants to generate concrete strategy options. This skill guides the full workflow: from factor identification through prioritization to actionable strategy formulation.

## When to Use

**Trigger conditions:**
- User asks to assess a company, product, team, or project's strategic position
- User needs to identify advantages, risks, or competitive factors
- User wants to turn a situational analysis into strategy options
- User mentions "SWOT", "strengths and weaknesses", or "strategic assessment"

**When NOT to use:**
- For industry-level competitive dynamics → use Porter's Five Forces
- For macro-environment scanning → use PESTEL
- For product portfolio decisions → use BCG Matrix
- When the user only needs financial analysis, not strategic positioning

## Framework

```
IRON LAW: Internal vs External Classification

Strengths and Weaknesses are INTERNAL — they originate from within the
organization and the organization can directly control or change them.
Examples: proprietary technology, brand reputation, team expertise, cost
structure, operational processes.

Opportunities and Threats are EXTERNAL — they originate from the environment
and the organization cannot directly control them.
Examples: market trends, regulatory changes, competitor actions, economic
conditions, technological shifts.

NEVER classify an external trend as a Strength or Weakness.
NEVER classify an internal capability as an Opportunity or Threat.

Test: "Can the organization decide to change this tomorrow?"
  YES → Internal (S or W)
  NO  → External (O or T)
```

```
IRON LAW: Completeness Before Synthesis

Complete ALL four quadrants before generating strategies.
Do NOT jump to recommendations after identifying only strengths and
opportunities. Skipping W or T produces dangerously optimistic strategies.
```

### Step 1: Identify Internal Factors (S and W)

Examine the organization's resources, capabilities, and performance:

- **Tangible**: financial resources, physical assets, technology, patents
- **Intangible**: brand equity, culture, expertise, relationships, reputation
- **Capabilities**: processes, skills, management quality, innovation track record

For each factor, classify as Strength (competitive advantage) or Weakness (competitive disadvantage) relative to competitors. Be specific — "good team" is too vague; "engineering team with 5+ years experience in ML deployment" is actionable.

### Step 2: Identify External Factors (O and T)

Scan the environment across these dimensions:

- **Market**: growth trends, customer needs shifts, new segments
- **Competitive**: competitor moves, new entrants, substitutes
- **Macro**: regulatory, economic, technological, social changes
- **Industry-specific**: supply chain shifts, channel evolution, standards changes

For each factor, classify as Opportunity (favorable) or Threat (unfavorable). Ground each factor in evidence — cite data, trends, or specific events when possible.

### Step 3: Prioritize Factors

Not all factors carry equal weight. For each quadrant, rank factors by:

1. **Impact**: How significantly would this affect the organization? (High / Medium / Low)
2. **Likelihood** (for O and T): How probable is this? (High / Medium / Low)
3. **Urgency**: Is this time-sensitive?

Keep the top 3-5 factors per quadrant for the TOWS matrix. Including too many dilutes the analysis.

### Step 4: Build the TOWS Matrix

Cross the four quadrants to generate four types of strategies:

| | **Opportunities** | **Threats** |
|---|---|---|
| **Strengths** | **SO strategies**: Use strengths to capture opportunities | **ST strategies**: Use strengths to defend against threats |
| **Weaknesses** | **WO strategies**: Address weaknesses to capture opportunities | **WT strategies**: Minimize weaknesses to avoid threats |

For each cell, generate 1-3 specific strategy options. Each strategy must reference at least one factor from each axis (e.g., SO strategy must name a specific strength AND a specific opportunity).

### Step 5: Formulate Action Plan

Convert the most promising TOWS strategies into actionable recommendations:

1. Select the 3-5 highest-impact strategies across all four cells
2. For each, define: objective, owner, timeline, resources needed, success metric
3. Flag dependencies and potential conflicts between strategies

## Output Format

```markdown
# SWOT Analysis: {Subject}

## Internal Factors

### Strengths
| # | Factor | Evidence | Impact |
|---|--------|----------|--------|
| S1 | {specific strength} | {supporting data} | High/Med/Low |
| S2 | ... | ... | ... |

### Weaknesses
| # | Factor | Evidence | Impact |
|---|--------|----------|--------|
| W1 | {specific weakness} | {supporting data} | High/Med/Low |
| W2 | ... | ... | ... |

## External Factors

### Opportunities
| # | Factor | Evidence | Likelihood |
|---|--------|----------|-----------|
| O1 | {specific opportunity} | {supporting data} | High/Med/Low |
| O2 | ... | ... | ... |

### Threats
| # | Factor | Evidence | Likelihood |
|---|--------|----------|-----------|
| T1 | {specific threat} | {supporting data} | High/Med/Low |
| T2 | ... | ... | ... |

## TOWS Strategy Matrix

| | Opportunities (O1, O2...) | Threats (T1, T2...) |
|---|---|---|
| **Strengths** | SO: {strategy using S to capture O} | ST: {strategy using S to counter T} |
| **Weaknesses** | WO: {strategy to fix W and capture O} | WT: {strategy to minimize W and avoid T} |

## Recommended Actions
1. **{Strategy name}** — {description} (from: {SO/ST/WO/WT})
   - Timeline: ...
   - Success metric: ...
2. ...
```

## Examples

### Correct Application

**Scenario:** SWOT for a mid-size Taiwanese bubble tea chain considering expansion to Japan

**Analysis:**

| Quadrant | Factor | Classification | Reasoning |
|----------|--------|---------------|-----------|
| **S** | Proprietary tapioca pearl recipe with unique texture | Internal ✓ | Company's own R&D product |
| **S** | 50 stores in Taiwan with proven SOP | Internal ✓ | Company's operational asset |
| **W** | No Japanese-speaking management team | Internal ✓ | Company's own resource gap |
| **W** | Limited capital for overseas expansion | Internal ✓ | Company's financial constraint |
| **O** | Japanese bubble tea market growing 15% YoY | External ✓ | Market trend, not company-controlled |
| **O** | Japan-Taiwan tourism recovery post-COVID | External ✓ | Macro environment factor |
| **T** | Established Japanese competitors (Gong Cha, CoCo) | External ✓ | Competitor landscape |
| **T** | Yen depreciation increasing import costs | External ✓ | Economic condition |

**TOWS strategy example:**
- **SO**: Leverage proprietary recipe (S1) to differentiate in the growing Japanese market (O1) — position as "authentic Taiwanese craft tea"
- **WT**: Address capital limitation (W2) by minimizing currency risk (T2) — source ingredients locally in Japan where possible

### Incorrect Application

**Scenario:** Same bubble tea chain

**What went wrong:**

| Factor | Placed In | Should Be | Why |
|--------|-----------|-----------|-----|
| "Japanese bubble tea market growing 15% YoY" | **Strength** ❌ | **Opportunity** | Market growth is an external trend — the company cannot control it. Violates Iron Law: internal factors only in S/W. |
| "Our team lacks experience" | **Threat** ❌ | **Weakness** | Team composition is internal — the company controls who it hires. Violates Iron Law: external factors only in O/T. |
| "Good brand" | **Strength** ⚠️ | Needs specificity | Too vague to be actionable. What makes the brand good? Recognition in Taiwan? Social media following? Specific awards? |

## Gotchas

- **Internal/External confusion with "market position"**: "We are the #3 player" feels internal but the ranking itself is determined by market dynamics. Split it: "Strong distribution network in northern Taiwan" (S, internal capability) vs "Market consolidation reducing number of competitors" (O or T, external trend).
- **Strengths that are actually table stakes**: "We have a website" is not a strength if every competitor also has one. Strengths must be relative advantages vs competitors.
- **Confusing absence of threat with opportunity**: "No major competitor in this niche" is NOT an opportunity — it may signal the niche is not viable. An opportunity requires a positive external trend or event.
- **TOWS strategies that only reference one axis**: "Expand to Japan" is not a TOWS strategy. It must cross quadrants: "Leverage proprietary recipe (S1) to enter the growing Japanese market (O1)."
- **Scope drift**: SWOT for "the company" is too broad. Scope to a specific decision: "SWOT for expanding to Japan" or "SWOT for launching a new product line."
- **Recency bias**: Recent events dominate the analysis. Force consideration of structural, long-term factors alongside current events.

## References

- For detailed TOWS matrix case studies, see `references/tows-case-studies.md`
- For comparison with other strategy frameworks (Porter's, PESTEL, BCG), see `references/framework-comparison.md`