econ-macro-indicators

asgard-ai-platform ｜ 金融與投資 ｜ 原文 ｜ MIT

解讀 GDP、通膨、利率等總經指標，判斷經濟走向

---
name: "econ-macro-indicators"
description: "解讀總體經濟指標（GDP、通膨、失業率、利率、匯率），評估經濟體質並預測趨勢。當使用者需要評估一個國家的經濟前景、了解貨幣/財政政策的影響，或把商業決策放進總體經濟環境來看時使用。就算使用者只說「經濟現在好嗎」、「升息對我們代表什麼」或「解釋一下今天的經濟數據」也要用。"
metadata:
  category: "WP-17 經濟學院"
  tags: ["economics", "macroeconomics", "economic-indicators"]
---

# 總體經濟指標

## 概述

總體經濟指標衡量整體經濟的表現。它們分成領先（預測未來）、同時（反映現況）和落後（確認過去）三類指標。了解這些指標，有助於把商業決策放進更大的經濟環境中來看。

## 框架

```
IRON LAW: Leading, Coincident, or Lagging — Know Which Type

GDP growth is LAGGING — by the time it's published, the economy has already
changed. Stock markets and PMI are LEADING — they predict future direction.
Unemployment is LAGGING — it rises after a recession starts.

Using a lagging indicator to predict the future is looking in the rearview mirror.
Match the indicator type to your analysis purpose.
```

### 關鍵指標

**GDP（國內生產毛額）**
- 類型：落後
- 衡量：整體經濟產出
- 關鍵訊號：連續 2 季負成長 = 技術性衰退
- 台灣：由主計總處每季公布

**通膨（CPI/PPI）**
- 類型：同時
- CPI = 消費者物價，PPI = 生產者物價（CPI 的領先指標）
- 目標：大多數央行的目標約 2%
- 台灣：CPI 由主計總處每月公布

**失業率**
- 類型：落後
- 自然失業率因國家而異（台灣約 3.5-4%）
- 要注意 U-3（官方數字）與包含不完全就業在內的更廣義指標

**利率**
- 央行政策利率（台灣央行重貼現率）
- 升息 → 減緩經濟、對抗通膨、使貨幣走強
- 降息 → 刺激經濟、有通膨風險、使貨幣走弱

**匯率**
- 以台灣為中心的分析，看 TWD/USD、TWD/JPY、TWD/CNY
- 貶值 → 出口變便宜，進口變貴
- 要看實質有效匯率（REER）來判斷貿易競爭力

**PMI（採購經理人指數）**
- 類型：領先
- 高於 50 = 擴張，低於 50 = 收縮
- 每月公布，比 GDP 資料更早取得

### 指標之間的關係

```
Central bank raises rates
  → Borrowing costs rise
    → Consumer spending slows + Business investment slows
      → GDP growth slows
        → Unemployment rises (with lag)
          → Inflation falls (the goal)
```

### 分析步驟

1. **蒐集** 5-6 個關鍵指標的**最新資料**
2. 把每個指標**分類**為領先/同時/落後
3. **找出趨勢**（改善、穩定、惡化）
4. **檢查背離**（領先指標跟落後指標的方向不同 = 轉折點）
5. 針對特定的企業/產業情境**評估意涵**

## 輸出格式

```markdown
# Macroeconomic Assessment: {Country/Region}

## Indicator Dashboard
| Indicator | Current | Previous | Trend | Type |
|-----------|---------|----------|-------|------|
| GDP Growth | X% | X% | ↑/↓/→ | Lagging |
| CPI Inflation | X% | X% | ↑/↓/→ | Coincident |
| Unemployment | X% | X% | ↑/↓/→ | Lagging |
| Policy Rate | X% | X% | ↑/↓/→ | — |
| PMI | XX | XX | ↑/↓/→ | Leading |
| Exchange Rate | X.XX | X.XX | ↑/↓/→ | — |

## Economic Phase
{Expansion / Peak / Contraction / Trough}

## Key Signals
- Leading indicators suggest: {direction}
- Divergence: {if any — e.g., PMI falling while GDP still positive = slowdown ahead}

## Business Implications
- For {industry}: {specific impact}
```

## 範例

### 正確的做法
**情境：** 2025 年第 4 季的台灣總體經濟評估
| 指標 | 數值 | 訊號 |
|-----------|-------|--------|
| GDP 成長 | 年增 3.2% | 穩健，但從 4.1% 減速 |
| CPI | 2.1% | 接近目標、穩定 |
| 失業率 | 3.6% | 接近充分就業 |
| 政策利率 | 2.0% | 連續 3 季維持不變 |
| PMI | 48.5 | 低於 50，**預示放緩的領先指標** |

診斷：GDP 看起來健康（落後），但 PMI 預示接下來會收縮。經濟很可能處於或接近**高峰**階段 ✓

### 錯誤的做法
- 「上一季 GDP 成長 3.2%，所以下一季經濟也會成長」→ GDP 是落後指標。PMI 48.5 顯示情況並非如此。違反 Iron Law：用落後指標預測未來。

## 常見陷阱

- **整體 vs 核心通膨**：整體 CPI 包含波動大的食品和能源，核心 CPI 則排除它們。央行做政策決定時看的是核心。
- **實質 vs 名目**：一定要註明。「GDP 成長 5%」是名目還是實質？實質 GDP 會扣掉通膨，顯示真正的成長。
- **季節調整**：失業率、零售銷售和許多指標都做過季節調整。要用調整後跟調整後比，絕對不要拿調整後的跟原始值比。
- **台灣特有**：台灣經濟高度依賴出口。台積電的營收指引，可以說是比一般 PMI 更好的台灣領先指標。
- **資料修正**：GDP 的初估值會被修正 2-3 次。不要對第一次公布的數字反應過度。

## 參考資料

- 景氣循環理論，見 econ-business-cycle skill
- 台灣專屬的經濟資料來源，見 `references/taiwan-data-sources.md`

---
name: "econ-macro-indicators"
description: "Interpret macroeconomic indicators including GDP, inflation, unemployment, interest rates, and exchange rates to assess economic health and predict trends. Use this skill when the user needs to evaluate a country's economic outlook, understand monetary/fiscal policy impacts, or contextualize business decisions within the macroeconomic environment — even if they say 'is the economy doing well', 'what do rising interest rates mean for us', or 'explain today's economic data'."
metadata:
  category: "WP-17 經濟學院"
  tags: ["economics", "macroeconomics", "economic-indicators"]
---

# Macroeconomic Indicators

## Overview

Macroeconomic indicators measure aggregate economic performance. They divide into leading (predict future), coincident (reflect current), and lagging (confirm past) indicators. Understanding these helps contextualize business decisions within the broader economic environment.

## Framework

```
IRON LAW: Leading, Coincident, or Lagging — Know Which Type

GDP growth is LAGGING — by the time it's published, the economy has already
changed. Stock markets and PMI are LEADING — they predict future direction.
Unemployment is LAGGING — it rises after a recession starts.

Using a lagging indicator to predict the future is looking in the rearview mirror.
Match the indicator type to your analysis purpose.
```

### Key Indicators

**GDP (Gross Domestic Product)**
- Type: Lagging
- Measures: Total economic output
- Key signals: 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth = technical recession
- Taiwan: Published quarterly by DGBAS

**Inflation (CPI/PPI)**
- Type: Coincident
- CPI = consumer prices, PPI = producer prices (leading indicator for CPI)
- Target: Most central banks target ~2%
- Taiwan: CPI published monthly by DGBAS

**Unemployment Rate**
- Type: Lagging
- Natural rate varies by country (~3.5-4% for Taiwan)
- Watch U-3 (official) vs broader measures that include underemployment

**Interest Rates**
- Central bank policy rate (台灣央行重貼現率)
- Raising rates → slows economy, fights inflation, strengthens currency
- Lowering rates → stimulates economy, risks inflation, weakens currency

**Exchange Rate**
- TWD/USD, TWD/JPY, TWD/CNY for Taiwan-centric analysis
- Depreciation → exports cheaper but imports more expensive
- Watch real effective exchange rate (REER) for trade competitiveness

**PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index)**
- Type: Leading
- Above 50 = expansion, below 50 = contraction
- Published monthly, available before GDP data

### Indicator Relationships

```
Central bank raises rates
  → Borrowing costs rise
    → Consumer spending slows + Business investment slows
      → GDP growth slows
        → Unemployment rises (with lag)
          → Inflation falls (the goal)
```

### Analysis Steps

1. **Gather current data** for 5-6 key indicators
2. **Classify each** as leading/coincident/lagging
3. **Identify trends** (improving, stable, deteriorating)
4. **Check for divergence** (leading indicators pointing different direction from lagging = inflection point)
5. **Assess implications** for the specific business/industry context

## Output Format

```markdown
# Macroeconomic Assessment: {Country/Region}

## Indicator Dashboard
| Indicator | Current | Previous | Trend | Type |
|-----------|---------|----------|-------|------|
| GDP Growth | X% | X% | ↑/↓/→ | Lagging |
| CPI Inflation | X% | X% | ↑/↓/→ | Coincident |
| Unemployment | X% | X% | ↑/↓/→ | Lagging |
| Policy Rate | X% | X% | ↑/↓/→ | — |
| PMI | XX | XX | ↑/↓/→ | Leading |
| Exchange Rate | X.XX | X.XX | ↑/↓/→ | — |

## Economic Phase
{Expansion / Peak / Contraction / Trough}

## Key Signals
- Leading indicators suggest: {direction}
- Divergence: {if any — e.g., PMI falling while GDP still positive = slowdown ahead}

## Business Implications
- For {industry}: {specific impact}
```

## Examples

### Correct Application
**Scenario:** Taiwan macro assessment Q4 2025
| Indicator | Value | Signal |
|-----------|-------|--------|
| GDP Growth | 3.2% YoY | Solid but decelerating from 4.1% |
| CPI | 2.1% | Near target, stable |
| Unemployment | 3.6% | Near full employment |
| Policy Rate | 2.0% | Held steady for 3 quarters |
| PMI | 48.5 | Below 50 — **leading indicator of slowdown** |

Diagnosis: GDP looks healthy (lagging) but PMI signals contraction ahead. The economy is likely at or near **peak** phase ✓

### Incorrect Application
- "GDP grew 3.2% last quarter, so the economy will grow next quarter too" → GDP is lagging. PMI at 48.5 suggests otherwise. Violates Iron Law: using lagging indicator to predict future.

## Gotchas

- **Headline vs core inflation**: Headline CPI includes volatile food and energy. Core CPI excludes them. Central banks focus on core for policy decisions.
- **Real vs nominal**: Always specify. "GDP grew 5%" — nominal or real? Real GDP adjusts for inflation and shows true growth.
- **Seasonal adjustment**: Unemployment, retail sales, and many indicators are seasonally adjusted. Compare adjusted-to-adjusted, never adjusted-to-raw.
- **Taiwan-specific**: Taiwan's economy is heavily export-dependent. TSMC's revenue guidance is arguably a better leading indicator for Taiwan than generic PMI.
- **Data revision**: Initial GDP estimates are revised 2-3 times. Don't overreact to first releases.

## References

- For business cycle theory, see the econ-business-cycle skill
- For Taiwan-specific economic data sources, see `references/taiwan-data-sources.md`