tw-stock-analysis

asgard-ai-platform ｜ 金融與投資 ｜ 原文 ｜ MIT

用 EPS、本益比、殖利率與財報做台股基本面分析並比較同業

---
name: "tw-stock-analysis"
description: "用基本面分析來分析台灣上市櫃股票，包括 EPS、本益比、殖利率和財報檢視。當使用者需要評估一檔台股、比較上市/上櫃公司、評估估值或檢視獲利時使用這個 skill，就算他們說的是「這檔股票該買嗎」、「分析台積電」、「這檔是不是被高估」或「比較這兩家台灣公司」也一樣。"
metadata:
  category: "WP-08 財務投資"
  tags: ["finance", "taiwan-stocks", "fundamental-analysis", "investment"]
---

# 台股基本面分析

## 框架

```
IRON LAW: Valuation Is Relative — Compare to Peers and History
（鐵律：估值是相對的，要和同業與歷史比較）

本益比 20 倍，對成長型科技股來說算便宜，
對成熟的公用事業股卻算貴。一定要拿來比較：
(1) 產業同業、(2) 這檔股票自己的歷史區間、
(3) 整體大盤（加權指數平均本益比約 14-18）。
單獨一個數字沒有意義。
```

### 台股關鍵指標

| 指標 | 公式 | 它告訴你什麼 | 資料來源 |
|--------|---------|------------------|------------|
| **EPS** | 稅後淨利 / 流通在外股數 | 每股獲利能力 | 公開資訊觀測站（MOPS） |
| **本益比（P/E）** | 股價 / EPS | 市場為每一元盈餘付多少錢 | Yahoo 奇摩股市、Goodinfo |
| **股價淨值比（P/B）** | 股價 / 每股淨值 | 相對淨資產的溢價 | MOPS |
| **殖利率** | 年度股利 / 股價 | 收益報酬 | 公開資訊觀測站 |
| **配息率** | 股利 / 稅後淨利 | 股利的可持續性 | 自行計算 |
| **ROE** | 稅後淨利 / 股東權益 | 股東權益報酬率 | MOPS |
| **負債權益比** | 總負債 / 權益 | 財務槓桿 | MOPS |
| **營收成長** | (本期營收 - 前期營收) / 前期營收 | 營收動能 | 月營收報告 |

### 台灣專屬的資料來源

| 來源 | 有什麼 | 網址 |
|--------|-----------|-----|
| 公開資訊觀測站（MOPS） | 財報、股利、內部人交易 | mops.twse.com.tw |
| 台灣證券交易所（TWSE） | 股價、成交量、指數 | www.twse.com.tw |
| Goodinfo | 歷史財務、股利歷史、技術面資料 | goodinfo.tw |
| 證交所月營收 | 月營收公告（10 號前） | MOPS + 新聞 |

### 分析步驟

**階段 1：了解事業**
- 公司做什麼？屬於哪個產業/類股？
- 主要競爭對手是誰？
- 營收由什麼驅動？（產品、業務部門、地區）

**階段 2：財務體質**
- 營收趨勢（月資料是台灣市場獨有的，要看月營收）
- 獲利能力：EPS 趨勢、營業利益率趨勢
- 資產負債表：負債權益比、流動比率、現金部位
- 現金流：營業現金流是正的嗎？自由現金流趨勢如何？

**階段 3：估值**
- 本益比 vs 同業、vs 自己 5 年區間、vs 加權指數平均
- 股價淨值比 vs 同業（尤其是重資產產業）
- 殖利率 vs 同業，以及 vs 台灣 10 年期公債殖利率（約 1.5%）

**階段 4：成長與風險**
- 營收成長率 vs 產業
- 資本支出計畫（MOPS 公告）
- 集中度風險（客戶、產品、地區）
- 法規與地緣政治風險

### 台灣市場特色

| 特色 | 細節 |
|---------|--------|
| **月營收揭露** | 上市櫃公司在 10 號前公布月營收，是台灣獨有的，比季報提供更即時的資料 |
| **股利文化** | 台灣投資人非常偏愛股利股。高殖利率股票享有溢價。 |
| **除息價格調整** | 台股在除息日會下跌相當於股利的金額。這是正常的，不是虧損。 |
| **當沖稅** | 證券交易稅：0.3%（當沖 0.15%）。短線交易成本要算進去。 |
| **外資影響力** | 外資（境外機構投資人）的買賣超資料是公開的，而且對股價影響很大。要關注三大法人資料。 |

## 輸出格式

```markdown
# Stock Analysis: {Company Name} ({Stock Code})

## Company Overview
- Industry: {sector}
- Market cap: NT${X}B
- Main business: {description}

## Financial Summary
| Metric | Current | 3-Year Avg | Peer Avg | Assessment |
|--------|---------|-----------|---------|-----------|
| EPS | NT${X} | NT${X} | NT${X} | Above/Below |
| P/E | {X}x | {X}x | {X}x | Cheap/Fair/Expensive |
| Dividend Yield | {%} | {%} | {%} | ... |
| ROE | {%} | {%} | {%} | ... |
| D/E | {X} | {X} | {X} | ... |

## Revenue Trend (Monthly)
| Month | Revenue (NT$M) | YoY Growth |
|-------|-------------|-----------|
| {month} | {amount} | {%} |

## Valuation Assessment
{Cheap / Fair / Expensive — with rationale comparing to peers and history}

## Key Risks
1. {risk}

## Investment Thesis
{Bull case vs bear case in 2-3 sentences each}
```

## 常見陷阱

- **EPS 可能被一次性項目扭曲**：檢查 EPS 有沒有包含資產出售、法律和解或沖銷。做趨勢分析時，要用「本業 EPS」。
- **月營收 ≠ 獲利能力**：營收成長 30% 的公司，毛利率可能正在下滑。只看營收成長、不做毛利分析是不完整的。
- **殖利率陷阱**：殖利率 8% 的股票，可能是有原因才這麼便宜（事業衰退、配息不可持續）。檢查配息率是否 > 80%，那可能無法持續。
- **台股股價會依股利調整**：不像美股，台股在除息日股價會下跌現金股利的金額。一檔 NT$100 的股票配 NT$5，開盤會是 NT$95。這不是虧損，因為你拿到了 NT$5 現金。
- **這是教育性質的分析，不是投資建議**：所有投資都有風險。過去績效不代表未來結果。請諮詢有執照的理財顧問。

## 參考資料

- DCF 估值方法，見 biz-dcf skill
- 財務比率深入解析，見 biz-financial-ratios skill

---
name: "tw-stock-analysis"
description: "Analyze Taiwan-listed stocks using fundamental analysis including EPS, P/E ratio, dividend yield, and financial statement review. Use this skill when the user needs to evaluate a Taiwan stock, compare TWSE/TPEx-listed companies, assess valuation, or review earnings — even if they say 'should I buy this stock', 'analyze 台積電', 'is this stock overvalued', or 'compare these two Taiwan companies'."
metadata:
  category: "WP-08 財務投資"
  tags: ["finance", "taiwan-stocks", "fundamental-analysis", "investment"]
---

# Taiwan Stock Fundamental Analysis

## Framework

```
IRON LAW: Valuation Is Relative — Compare to Peers and History

A P/E of 20 is cheap for a growth tech stock but expensive for a mature
utility. ALWAYS compare to: (1) industry peers, (2) the stock's own
historical range, and (3) the broader market (TAIEX average P/E ~14-18).
A single number in isolation is meaningless.
```

### Key Metrics for Taiwan Stocks

| Metric | Formula | What It Tells You | Data Source |
|--------|---------|------------------|------------|
| **EPS** | Net Income / Shares Outstanding | Profitability per share | 公開資訊觀測站 (MOPS) |
| **P/E Ratio** | Stock Price / EPS | How much market pays per dollar of earnings | Yahoo Finance TW, Goodinfo |
| **P/B Ratio** | Stock Price / Book Value per Share | Premium to net assets | MOPS |
| **Dividend Yield** | Annual Dividend / Stock Price | Income return | 公開資訊觀測站 |
| **Payout Ratio** | Dividends / Net Income | Sustainability of dividends | Calculated |
| **ROE** | Net Income / Shareholders' Equity | Return on equity | MOPS |
| **Debt-to-Equity** | Total Debt / Equity | Financial leverage | MOPS |
| **Revenue Growth** | (Current Rev - Prior Rev) / Prior Rev | Top-line momentum | Monthly revenue reports |

### Taiwan-Specific Data Sources

| Source | What It Has | URL |
|--------|-----------|-----|
| 公開資訊觀測站 (MOPS) | Financial statements, dividends, insider trading | mops.twse.com.tw |
| 台灣證券交易所 (TWSE) | Stock prices, trading volume, indices | www.twse.com.tw |
| Goodinfo | Historical financials, dividend history, technical data | goodinfo.tw |
| 證交所月營收 | Monthly revenue announcements (by the 10th) | MOPS + news |

### Analysis Steps

**Phase 1: Business Understanding**
- What does the company do? Which industry/sector?
- Who are the main competitors?
- What drives revenue? (products, segments, geographies)

**Phase 2: Financial Health**
- Revenue trend (monthly data unique to Taiwan market — check 月營收)
- Profitability: EPS trend, operating margin trend
- Balance sheet: D/E ratio, current ratio, cash position
- Cash flow: operating CF positive? Free cash flow trend?

**Phase 3: Valuation**
- P/E vs peers, vs own 5-year range, vs TAIEX average
- P/B vs peers (especially for asset-heavy industries)
- Dividend yield vs peers and vs Taiwan 10-year bond yield (~1.5%)

**Phase 4: Growth & Risk**
- Revenue growth rate vs industry
- Capex plans (MOPS announcements)
- Concentration risk (customer, product, geography)
- Regulatory and geopolitical risks

### Taiwan Market Specifics

| Feature | Detail |
|---------|--------|
| **Monthly revenue disclosure** | Listed companies report monthly revenue by the 10th — unique to Taiwan, provides more timely data than quarterly reports |
| **Dividend culture** | Taiwan investors heavily favor dividend stocks. High-yield stocks trade at a premium. |
| **Ex-dividend price adjustment** | Taiwan stocks drop by the dividend amount on ex-date. This is normal, not a loss. |
| **Day trading tax** | Securities transaction tax: 0.3% (0.15% for day trades). Factor into short-term trading costs. |
| **Foreign investor influence** | 外資 (foreign institutional investors) buying/selling data is public and significantly moves stock prices. Monitor 三大法人 (three institutional investors) data. |

## Output Format

```markdown
# Stock Analysis: {Company Name} ({Stock Code})

## Company Overview
- Industry: {sector}
- Market cap: NT${X}B
- Main business: {description}

## Financial Summary
| Metric | Current | 3-Year Avg | Peer Avg | Assessment |
|--------|---------|-----------|---------|-----------|
| EPS | NT${X} | NT${X} | NT${X} | Above/Below |
| P/E | {X}x | {X}x | {X}x | Cheap/Fair/Expensive |
| Dividend Yield | {%} | {%} | {%} | ... |
| ROE | {%} | {%} | {%} | ... |
| D/E | {X} | {X} | {X} | ... |

## Revenue Trend (Monthly)
| Month | Revenue (NT$M) | YoY Growth |
|-------|-------------|-----------|
| {month} | {amount} | {%} |

## Valuation Assessment
{Cheap / Fair / Expensive — with rationale comparing to peers and history}

## Key Risks
1. {risk}

## Investment Thesis
{Bull case vs bear case in 2-3 sentences each}
```

## Gotchas

- **EPS can be distorted by one-time items**: Check if EPS includes asset sales, legal settlements, or write-offs. Use "recurring EPS" (本業 EPS) for trend analysis.
- **Monthly revenue ≠ profitability**: A company growing revenue 30% might have declining margins. Revenue growth without margin analysis is incomplete.
- **Dividend yield trap**: A stock yielding 8% may be cheap for a reason (declining business, unsustainable payout). Check if the payout ratio > 80% — that may not be sustainable.
- **Taiwan stock prices adjust for dividends**: Unlike US stocks, Taiwan stock prices drop by the cash dividend amount on ex-date. A NT$100 stock paying NT$5 opens at NT$95. This is not a loss — you received NT$5 in cash.
- **This is educational analysis, not investment advice**: All investment carries risk. Past performance does not predict future results. Consult a licensed financial advisor.

## References

- For DCF valuation methodology, see the biz-dcf skill
- For financial ratio deep-dive, see the biz-financial-ratios skill