market-sizing-analysis
用 top-down、bottom-up 與價值理論計算 TAM/SAM/SOM
中文翻譯
--- name: market-sizing-analysis description: 用 top-down、bottom-up 與價值理論方法計算市場機會的 TAM/SAM/SOM。在評估市場規模、估算可觸及營收、驗證新事業的市場機會，或為新創簡報或商業計畫書建立能給投資人看的市場分析時使用。 version: 1.0.0 --- # Market Sizing Analysis 完整的市場規模評估方法，用來計算新創機會的 Total Addressable Market (TAM)、Serviceable Available Market (SAM) 和 Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM)。 ## Overview 市場規模評估是新創策略、募資與商業規劃的基礎。用三種互補的方法計算市場機會：top-down（產業報告）、bottom-up（客群計算）和價值理論（願付價格）。 ## Core Concepts ### The Three-Tier Market Framework **TAM (Total Addressable Market)** - 達到 100% 市占率時的總營收機會 - 定義潛在客戶的全貌 - 用於長期願景與市場驗證 - 例：全球所有 email 行銷軟體的營收 **SAM (Serviceable Available Market)** - TAM 中，用目前的產品/服務能鎖定的部分 - 把地理、客群或能力的限制納入考量 - 代表實際可觸及的機會 - 例：北美電商用的 AI email 行銷 **SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market)** - 3 到 5 年內可實際取得的市占率 - 把競爭、資源和市場動態納入考量 - 用於財務預測與募資 - 例：依競爭格局，取 SAM 的 2% 到 5% ### When to Use Each Methodology **Top-Down Analysis** - 已有成熟的市場研究時使用 - 最適合成熟、定義明確的市場 - 驗證市場存在與成長性 - 從產業報告出發，逐步縮小範圍 **Bottom-Up Analysis** - 鎖定特定客群時使用 - 最適合新興或利基市場 - 對投資人最有說服力 - 從客戶資料和定價往上堆 **Value Theory** - 創造新市場類別時使用 - 最適合顛覆性創新 - 依創造的價值來估算 - 計算客戶為解決問題願意付的價格 ## Detailed patterns and worked examples 詳細的模式文件放在 `references/details.md`。上面的導覽層不夠用時，再去讀那個檔案。
英文原文
--- name: market-sizing-analysis description: Calculate TAM/SAM/SOM for market opportunities using top-down, bottom-up, and value theory methodologies. Use this skill when sizing markets, estimating addressable revenue, validating market opportunity for a new venture, or building investor-ready market analysis for a startup pitch or business plan. version: 1.0.0 --- # Market Sizing Analysis Comprehensive market sizing methodologies for calculating Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) for startup opportunities. ## Overview Market sizing provides the foundation for startup strategy, fundraising, and business planning. Calculate market opportunity using three complementary methodologies: top-down (industry reports), bottom-up (customer segment calculations), and value theory (willingness to pay). ## Core Concepts ### The Three-Tier Market Framework **TAM (Total Addressable Market)** - Total revenue opportunity if achieving 100% market share - Defines the universe of potential customers - Used for long-term vision and market validation - Example: All email marketing software revenue globally **SAM (Serviceable Available Market)** - Portion of TAM targetable with current product/service - Accounts for geographic, segment, or capability constraints - Represents realistic addressable opportunity - Example: AI-powered email marketing for e-commerce in North America **SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market)** - Realistic market share achievable in 3-5 years - Accounts for competition, resources, and market dynamics - Used for financial projections and fundraising - Example: 2-5% of SAM based on competitive landscape ### When to Use Each Methodology **Top-Down Analysis** - Use when established market research exists - Best for mature, well-defined markets - Validates market existence and growth - Starts with industry reports and narrows down **Bottom-Up Analysis** - Use when targeting specific customer segments - Best for new or niche markets - Most credible for investors - Builds from customer data and pricing **Value Theory** - Use when creating new market categories - Best for disruptive innovations - Estimates based on value creation - Calculates willingness to pay for problem solution ## Detailed patterns and worked examples Detailed pattern documentation lives in `references/details.md`. Read that file when the navigation tier above is insufficient.